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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

Trades-Own-Strategy Certification

This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification. This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy in a real-life, funded brokerage account.

Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details
Certification process started 11/23/2016
Most recent certification approved 11/23/16 10:35 ET
Trades at broker Interactive Brokers (Direct Connection non-US)
Scaling percentage used 100%
# trading signals issued by system since certification 827
# trading signals executed in manager's Interactive Brokers (Direct Connection non-US) account 776
Percent signals followed since 11/23/2016 93.8%
This information was last updated 12/10/18 0:32 ET

Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.

Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account, the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results. This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals, particularly those that occurred before 11/23/2016, and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition, not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

You may be interested to learn more technical details about how RandBots calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.

R Option
(102125034)

Started: 01/2013
Options
Last trade: 11 days ago
Trading style: Options Directional Bets

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $199.00 per month.

Trading Category: Options
Directional Bets
Category: Equity

Directional Bets

Uses primarily options to make bets about the direction or magnitude of price movements in assets.
65.0%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(41.7%)
Max Drawdown
425
Num Trades
86.8%
Win Trades
3.5 : 1
Profit Factor
81.9%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Interactive Brokers commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2013+0.2%+2.7%+3.3%+9.2%+3.6%+6.3%+5.4%+11.9%+13.2%+8.2%+4.3%+13.0%+117.4%
2014+12.2%+20.9%+13.2%+0.1%+2.1%+11.1%+3.1%+13.9%+3.2%+31.0%(0.1%)+12.9%+211.9%
2015+5.9%+1.2%+6.0%+4.3%+3.3%(14.4%)+43.5%+1.0%+5.5%+3.1%+2.2%+2.2%+72.5%
2016+3.8%(0.8%)+5.0%(0.2%)+9.5%(4.9%)+14.3%+1.6%+3.4%(2.2%)+3.0%+0.4%+36.4%
2017+4.1%+2.8%+2.0%+0.4%+3.7%  -  +5.2%+1.1%+0.2%+1.5%+0.7%+0.7%+24.7%
2018+1.4%(10.8%)  -  +1.5%  -  (0.5%)+1.8%+1.3%  -  +1.3%+2.9%(0.4%)(2.3%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 168 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 776 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
11/26/18 13:59 SPY1828W256 SPY Nov28'18 256 put SHORT 10 0.05 11/29 8:06 0.00 0%
Trade id #121171430
Max drawdown($10)
Time11/26/18 14:06
Quant open-10
Worst price0.06
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
$43
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.00
11/19/18 10:59 SPY1828W261 SPY Nov28'18 261 put SHORT 10 0.52 11/29 8:06 0.00 0.12%
Trade id #121045877
Max drawdown($2,240)
Time11/20/18 10:16
Quant open-10
Worst price2.76
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
$513
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.00
11/23/18 9:58 SPY1826W260 SPY Nov26'18 260 put SHORT 10 0.41 11/27 8:06 0.01 0.01%
Trade id #121134956
Max drawdown($175)
Time11/23/18 13:15
Quant open-10
Worst price0.59
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
$390
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.50
11/19/18 10:51 SPY1826W262 SPY Nov26'18 262 put SHORT 20 0.54 11/27 8:06 0.00 0.21%
Trade id #121045704
Max drawdown($4,060)
Time11/20/18 10:16
Quant open-20
Worst price2.57
Drawdown as % of equity-0.21%
$1,066
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.00
11/19/18 11:15 SPY1823W263 SPY Nov23'18 263 put SHORT 10 0.30 11/23 10:10 0.24 0.12%
Trade id #121046376
Max drawdown($2,270)
Time11/20/18 10:16
Quant open-10
Worst price2.57
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
$46
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.00
11/19/18 10:37 QQQ1823W159 QQQ Nov23'18 159 put SHORT 10 0.51 11/23 9:34 0.36 0.26%
Trade id #121045185
Max drawdown($5,110)
Time11/20/18 9:31
Quant open-10
Worst price5.62
Drawdown as % of equity-0.26%
$136
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.00
11/19/18 10:40 SPY1821W263 SPY Nov21'18 263 put SHORT 10 0.21 11/22 8:06 0.00 0.1%
Trade id #121045284
Max drawdown($1,950)
Time11/20/18 10:16
Quant open-10
Worst price2.16
Drawdown as % of equity-0.10%
$203
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.00
11/16/18 12:48 SPY1819W258 SPY Nov19'18 258 put SHORT 15 0.03 11/20 8:06 0.00 n/a $35
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.50
11/15/18 9:51 SPY1819W251 SPY Nov19'18 251 put SHORT 10 0.11 11/20 8:06 0.00 0%
Trade id #120965023
Max drawdown($20)
Time11/15/18 10:12
Quant open-10
Worst price0.13
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
$103
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.00
11/9/18 14:58 SPY1816W266 SPY Nov16'18 266 put SHORT 100 0.33 11/17 9:36 0.00 0.67%
Trade id #120860885
Max drawdown($13,200)
Time11/15/18 10:38
Quant open-100
Worst price1.65
Drawdown as % of equity-0.67%
$3,230
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
11/15/18 10:00 QQQ1816W155.5 QQQ Nov16'18 155.5 put SHORT 10 0.07 11/17 9:36 0.00 0%
Trade id #120965374
Max drawdown$0
Time11/15/18 10:02
Quant open-10
Worst price0.07
Drawdown as % of equity0.00%
$63
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.00
10/25/18 10:12 SPY1816W246 SPY Nov16'18 246 put SHORT 56 1.12 11/17 9:36 0.11 0.35%
Trade id #120538328
Max drawdown($6,664)
Time10/29/18 15:45
Quant open-56
Worst price2.31
Drawdown as % of equity-0.35%
$5,598
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $74.20
10/18/18 12:07 QQQ1816W155 QQQ Nov16'18 155 put SHORT 50 0.78 11/17 9:36 0.07 0.65%
Trade id #120422125
Max drawdown($12,450)
Time10/29/18 15:44
Quant open-50
Worst price3.27
Drawdown as % of equity-0.65%
$3,477
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $63.00
11/14/18 11:54 SPY1816W260 SPY Nov16'18 260 put SHORT 20 0.22 11/17 9:36 0.00 0.02%
Trade id #120938289
Max drawdown($400)
Time11/14/18 14:06
Quant open-20
Worst price0.42
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
$426
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.00
11/12/18 9:38 QQQ1816W163 QQQ Nov16'18 163 put SHORT 50 0.74 11/17 9:36 0.00 0.17%
Trade id #120880886
Max drawdown($3,420)
Time11/14/18 14:06
Quant open-50
Worst price1.42
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
$3,645
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $35.00
10/15/18 12:51 QQQ1816W159 QQQ Nov16'18 159 put SHORT 50 1.29 11/17 9:36 0.13 0.89%
Trade id #120357714
Max drawdown($17,147)
Time10/29/18 15:45
Quant open-50
Worst price4.72
Drawdown as % of equity-0.89%
$5,750
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $63.00
11/7/18 15:11 SPY1816W270 SPY Nov16'18 270 put SHORT 100 0.47 11/15 10:43 2.88 1.42%
Trade id #120805968
Max drawdown($28,017)
Time11/15/18 9:33
Quant open-99
Worst price3.30
Drawdown as % of equity-1.42%
($24,239)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $140.30
11/7/18 14:54 QQQ1816W166 QQQ Nov16'18 166 put SHORT 98 0.44 11/15 10:37 2.44 1.19%
Trade id #120805490
Max drawdown($23,422)
Time11/14/18 14:07
Quant open-98
Worst price2.83
Drawdown as % of equity-1.19%
($19,782)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $137.20
11/12/18 13:19 SPY1814W259 SPY Nov14'18 259 put SHORT 50 0.09 11/15 8:05 0.01 0%
Trade id #120887459
Max drawdown($50)
Time11/12/18 16:00
Quant open-50
Worst price0.10
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
$368
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $42.00
11/13/18 10:14 SPY1814W260 SPY Nov14'18 260 put SHORT 30 0.03 11/15 8:05 0.00 0%
Trade id #120905457
Max drawdown($60)
Time11/13/18 10:43
Quant open-30
Worst price0.05
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
$69
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $21.00
11/9/18 15:26 SPY1812W265 SPY Nov12'18 265 put SHORT 5 0.02 11/13 8:06 0.00 0%
Trade id #120861812
Max drawdown$0
Time11/9/18 16:07
Quant open-5
Worst price0.02
Drawdown as % of equity0.00%
$7
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.50
11/9/18 15:27 SPY1812W264 SPY Nov12'18 264 put SHORT 5 0.02 11/13 8:06 0.00 0%
Trade id #120861833
Max drawdown$0
Time11/9/18 15:29
Quant open-5
Worst price0.02
Drawdown as % of equity0.00%
$7
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.50
10/15/18 13:01 SPY1816W260 SPY Nov16'18 260 put SHORT 90 1.77 11/7 15:11 0.30 2.07%
Trade id #120357921
Max drawdown($39,697)
Time10/29/18 15:45
Quant open-90
Worst price6.18
Drawdown as % of equity-2.07%
$13,110
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $126.30
11/1/18 11:01 QQQ1809W161.5 QQQ Nov9'18 161.5 put SHORT 28 0.87 11/7 14:29 0.03 0.03%
Trade id #120668363
Max drawdown($616)
Time11/2/18 13:02
Quant open-28
Worst price1.09
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
$2,313
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $39.20
11/2/18 10:07 SPY1805W261 SPY Nov5'18 261 put SHORT 20 0.06 11/6 8:06 0.00 0.02%
Trade id #120694899
Max drawdown($320)
Time11/2/18 12:57
Quant open-20
Worst price0.22
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
$106
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.00
11/2/18 9:55 SPY1805W263 SPY Nov5'18 263 put SHORT 15 0.05 11/6 8:06 0.00 0.03%
Trade id #120694335
Max drawdown($510)
Time11/2/18 12:58
Quant open-15
Worst price0.39
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
$65
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.50
10/25/18 10:36 QQQ1802W152.5 QQQ Nov2'18 152.5 put SHORT 10 0.26 11/3 9:36 0.00 0.05%
Trade id #120539260
Max drawdown($1,040)
Time10/29/18 15:46
Quant open-10
Worst price1.30
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
$253
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.00
10/26/18 11:45 SPY1829V251.5 SPY Oct29'18 251.5 put SHORT 25 0.26 10/30 8:06 0.00 0%
Trade id #120565598
Max drawdown($75)
Time10/26/18 14:23
Quant open-25
Worst price0.29
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
$633
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $17.50
10/24/18 15:44 SPY1826V252 SPY Oct26'18 252 put SHORT 14 0.19 10/27 9:36 0.04 0.02%
Trade id #120521181
Max drawdown($304)
Time10/24/18 15:59
Quant open-14
Worst price0.41
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
$199
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.70
10/23/18 9:43 QQQ1826V160 QQQ Oct26'18 160 put SHORT 23 0.28 10/27 9:36 0.00 0.09%
Trade id #120486070
Max drawdown($1,667)
Time10/24/18 15:58
Quant open-23
Worst price1.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
$617
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.10

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    1/9/2013
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $35,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    2160.36
  • Age
    72 months ago
  • What it trades
    Options
  • # Trades
    425
  • # Profitable
    369
  • % Profitable
    86.80%
  • Avg trade duration
    9.9 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    41.7%
  • drawdown period
    Oct 08, 2014 - Oct 16, 2014
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    64.7%
  • Avg win
    $7,072
  • Avg loss
    $13,249
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $1,986,960
  • Margin Used
    $216,533
  • Buying Power
    $1,770,427
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    3.55:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.408
  • Sortino Ratio
    2.471
  • Calmar Ratio
    1.742
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.42400
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    64.7%
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    66.3%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    37.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    9.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    5.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    2.00%
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    1.00%
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    517
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    958
  • C2 Score
    75.1
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    183804
  • TOS percent
    100%
  • Subscription Price
  • Billing Period (days)
    30
  • Trial Days
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $13,249
  • Avg Win
    $7,137
  • # Winners
    368
  • # Losers
    56
  • % Winners
    86.8%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    14246.10
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    237.44
  • Avg Trade Length
    9.9 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    1
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.53732
  • SD
    0.33306
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.61327
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.59567
  • df
    69.00000
  • t
    3.89641
  • p
    0.00011
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.75317
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.46282
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.74161
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.44972
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    5.38251
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.21355
  • Upside part of mean
    0.62028
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.08296
  • Upside SD
    0.35134
  • Downside SD
    0.09983
  • N nonnegative terms
    58.00000
  • N negative terms
    12.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    70.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.08006
  • Mean of criterion
    0.53732
  • SD of predictor
    0.10528
  • SD of criterion
    0.33306
  • Covariance
    0.01495
  • r
    0.42643
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.34907
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.42932
  • Mean Square Error
    0.09209
  • DF error
    68.00000
  • t(b)
    3.88760
  • p(b)
    0.00012
  • t(a)
    3.33623
  • p(a)
    0.00069
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.65661
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    2.04154
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.17253
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.68610
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.39829
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.42932
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.48094
  • SD
    0.28845
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.66732
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.64913
  • df
    69.00000
  • t
    4.02695
  • p
    0.00007
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.80420
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.51961
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.79225
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.50601
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.46311
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.28231
  • Upside part of mean
    0.56921
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.08828
  • Upside SD
    0.29946
  • Downside SD
    0.10776
  • N nonnegative terms
    58.00000
  • N negative terms
    12.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    70.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07416
  • Mean of criterion
    0.48094
  • SD of predictor
    0.10551
  • SD of criterion
    0.28845
  • Covariance
    0.01308
  • r
    0.42977
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.17492
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.39380
  • Mean Square Error
    0.06883
  • DF error
    68.00000
  • t(b)
    3.92498
  • p(b)
    0.00010
  • t(a)
    3.55186
  • p(a)
    0.00035
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.57759
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.77225
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.17256
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.61505
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.40934
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.39380
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.09234
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.12297
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00612
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01845
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    70.00000
  • Minimum
    0.82515
  • Quartile 1
    1.00834
  • Median
    1.02522
  • Quartile 3
    1.06148
  • Maximum
    1.61711
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97684
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.01469
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.04131
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.15346
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.05314
  • Number outliers low
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.04286
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.86802
  • Number of outliers high
    8.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.11429
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.23568
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.79588
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01892
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.15033
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    7.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00475
  • Quartile 1
    0.01056
  • Median
    0.01621
  • Quartile 3
    0.11376
  • Maximum
    0.17485
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00614
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01490
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.10698
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.14770
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.10320
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    3.16424
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.66337
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    3.79390
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    4.49145
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    5.39474
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.56031
  • SD
    0.39767
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.40899
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.40830
  • df
    1538.00000
  • t
    3.41488
  • p
    0.45663
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.59856
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.21900
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.59808
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.21851
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.47090
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.02528
  • Upside part of mean
    1.36631
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.80600
  • Upside SD
    0.32835
  • Downside SD
    0.22676
  • N nonnegative terms
    657.00000
  • N negative terms
    882.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1539.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.08040
  • Mean of criterion
    0.56031
  • SD of predictor
    0.12651
  • SD of criterion
    0.39767
  • Covariance
    0.02128
  • r
    0.42306
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.32989
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.45300
  • Mean Square Error
    0.12992
  • DF error
    1537.00000
  • t(b)
    18.30470
  • p(b)
    0.23894
  • t(a)
    3.04619
  • p(a)
    0.45073
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.18738
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.47240
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.16144
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.74533
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.42132
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.45338
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.48472
  • SD
    0.38360
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.26362
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.26300
  • df
    1538.00000
  • t
    3.06256
  • p
    0.46107
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.45349
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.07333
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.45309
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.07292
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.00777
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.46167
  • Upside part of mean
    1.31858
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.83386
  • Upside SD
    0.29944
  • Downside SD
    0.24142
  • N nonnegative terms
    657.00000
  • N negative terms
    882.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1539.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07237
  • Mean of criterion
    0.48472
  • SD of predictor
    0.12676
  • SD of criterion
    0.38360
  • Covariance
    0.02107
  • r
    0.43339
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.31149
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.38981
  • Mean Square Error
    0.11959
  • DF error
    1537.00000
  • t(b)
    18.85320
  • p(b)
    0.23300
  • t(a)
    2.73030
  • p(a)
    0.45581
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.17505
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.44794
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.10976
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.66986
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.36960
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.38981
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03645
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04591
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00743
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01722
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    1539.00000
  • Minimum
    0.81471
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00300
  • Maximum
    1.39997
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98794
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00083
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02020
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00300
  • Number outliers low
    185.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.12021
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97638
  • Number of outliers high
    224.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14555
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.03113
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    1.12839
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00687
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.64871
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00816
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03109
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    152.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00000
  • Quartile 1
    0.00118
  • Median
    0.00554
  • Quartile 3
    0.01797
  • Maximum
    0.38451
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00054
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00301
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01198
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.07842
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01680
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    18.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.11842
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.13606
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.77048
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.07917
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.36995
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.60212
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.07125
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.20107
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    3.28768
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.66968
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.74165
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    8.53971
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    14.58730
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.10687
  • SD
    0.10347
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.03288
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.02691
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.73035
  • p
    0.46804
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.74371
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.80559
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.74771
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.80152
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.61737
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.60124
  • Upside part of mean
    0.43619
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.32932
  • Upside SD
    0.07938
  • Downside SD
    0.06608
  • N nonnegative terms
    47.00000
  • N negative terms
    84.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.11860
  • Mean of criterion
    0.10687
  • SD of predictor
    0.14806
  • SD of criterion
    0.10347
  • Covariance
    0.00731
  • r
    0.47705
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.33337
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.14641
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00833
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    6.16495
  • p(b)
    0.20825
  • t(a)
    1.13267
  • p(a)
    0.43693
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.22638
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.44036
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.10934
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.40215
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.32058
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.14641
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.10153
  • SD
    0.10338
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.98217
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.97649
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.69450
  • p
    0.46960
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.79402
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.75474
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.79785
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.75084
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.51804
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.47436
  • Upside part of mean
    0.43304
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.33150
  • Upside SD
    0.07856
  • Downside SD
    0.06688
  • N nonnegative terms
    47.00000
  • N negative terms
    84.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.12956
  • Mean of criterion
    0.10153
  • SD of predictor
    0.14871
  • SD of criterion
    0.10338
  • Covariance
    0.00733
  • r
    0.47685
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.33149
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.14448
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00832
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    6.16167
  • p(b)
    0.20836
  • t(a)
    1.11836
  • p(a)
    0.43772
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.22505
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.43793
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.11112
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.40009
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.30630
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.14448
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01007
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01270
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00331
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00725
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.96483
  • Quartile 1
    0.99999
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00072
  • Maximum
    1.03180
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99528
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00012
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00665
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00073
  • Number outliers low
    21.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.16031
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.99279
  • Number of outliers high
    26.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.19847
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00818
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.29604
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00304
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00599
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.14406
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00529
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00968
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    13.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00000
  • Quartile 1
    0.00086
  • Median
    0.00330
  • Quartile 3
    0.01291
  • Maximum
    0.04839
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00025
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00198
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00764
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.03175
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01206
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.07692
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.04839
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1.50200
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02907
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03016
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.07679
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.04229
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.06180
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.13372
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.13819
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    2.85583
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    4.35239
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    10.87940

Strategy Description

The goal of "R Option" is to generate approximately 100% every three years.

The Strategy is managed by Mario Randholm, CEO of Randholm & Co., an investment management company dedicated to managing capital for its clients and employees by adhering to mathematical and statistical methods.

The strategy have more than 10 years of track record with the original algorithm.

A similar strategy "R Option Mini" was created in Jan 2017 to facilitate scaling for smaller accounts.

Commentary:
http://www.mariorandholm.com/2017/01/01/roption/

Description and Performance of "R Option Mini":
https://randbots.com/details/109107515

Summary Statistics

Includes fees & commissions
Strategy began
2013-01-09
Suggested Minimum Capital
$35,000
# Trades
425
# Profitable
369
% Profitable
86.8%
Net Dividends
Correlation S&P500
0.424
Sharpe Ratio
1.408

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.